Apr 25, 2008: My first 3 stars

  • Market update & roadmap
  • My first 3 stars

  • Introduction

    I believe the markets are on the verge of a significant move to the upside. There are too many signs that the bottom is behind us.

    However, the next few months' winners will not be totally obvious, and I think investors should be careful in their investment choices going forward.

    The learning journey continues.

    Market update & roadmap for the next few months

    Key image: relative performance of US stocks major sub-indexes (plus the Dow transportation sector), since Jan 22, 2008.

    As I wrote in my most recent article a month ago, with the collapse of Bear Stearns, it seems like a long term bottom has been established. I see a big upside in US markets from here. Some more detailed view:

    My first 3 stars

    My Marketocracy SZDM portfolio is now almost at an all time high. I just got my first ever 3 green stars (1 year, 6 months, 3 months in the top 25%) thanks to the recent good calls on the imminent drop and what looked like a bottom in January (I was a bit early there). Moreover, the chart shows SZDM is now well above the m100 (best 100 portfolios on Marketocracy) average for the past year and since inception.

    Here is the chart of SZDM vs the 3 major indexes and the m100 average since inception. The high level of cash is due to some selective lightening up last week. I intend to deploy it back soon.

    Here are the returns and alpha/beta/R2 against the indexes:

    And finally, the rank summary and the stars:

    As always, any feedback, question, request, criticism, is welcome.

    -- ariel